Bare lands in the Zhuo-shui River are increasing due to decreasing water levels in drought seasons. The smaller particles of the bare lands lacking vegetation cover and/or water could be easily suspended and became aeolian dust under the northeast monsoon. It would seriously affect the nearby residents. health. Screening for the affecting factors and establishing the evaluation model are important to develop the warning system for areas vulnerable to aeolian dust emission. The downstream section of the Zhuo-shui River was selected as the study area. Meteorological data and satellite images were collected to analyze the main factors causing the aeolian dust emission for establishing the PM10 estimation models. The results indicate the established models should be adjusted due to the time-lagging phenomenon of peak occurrence between meteorological factors and PM10 in time series plotting. The coefficient of determination reached 0.77 by combining meteorological factors and land use to evaluate the daily maximum PM10, and the model shows the variations in concentration of the daily maximum PM10 at Lunbei monitoring station. The model developed in this study could be used as a reference for the warning system of aeolian dust emissions.