To investigate the effects of climate change on the potential of the landslides in the basin of Kaoping stream, in this study, physiographic factors are collected and tested; rainfall parameters are selected; logistic regression method is used to establish the model for evaluating the potential of landslides; and 3 GCMs models and 3 future scenarios are used for analysis. Results show
that 5 physiographic factors and 1 rainfall parameters are most highly correlated with the potential of landslides. They are the slope steepness, the area ratio of dip slope, the distance to fault, the road ratio and the rainfall amount of consecutive 2 days. The accuracy of the model established in this study reaches 80%. The impact for the future of the simulated results for the short term period (2010~2039)using the INCM3 model is found the greatest and the B1 scenario is found most in accordance with the real conditions. Using the developed model in this study to evaluate the potential of the landslide for the short term period, it is found the area of the highest potential of landslides increase 98%, compared with the potential of landslide in the baseline period (1961~1990).
Key Words : Climate change, landslide, potential of occurrence, physiographic factor, logistic regression