Two primary factors that alter the hydrological cycle are climate change and anthropogenic activity.Runoff is a component of the hydrological cycle as well as a measure of sustainable water availability. Therefore,assessing runoff variation has become a research topic of interest. In this study, we first used statistical nonparametric methods to analyze the runoff trend and change points during 1980–2018 for the Zhuoshui Alluvial Fan. We then quantified the effects of runoff variation by decomposing the Budyko curve and using climate elasticity methods, which are used in attribution analysis. We used the most applicable Budyko model for the Zhuoshui Alluvial Fan, and the results indicated that the runoff series significantly changed in 2003. We determined that the main reason for the runoff
variation was climate change and that the change in runoff was most sensitive to changes in precipitation. Finally, the modeling results were consistent with the observation of decreased vegetation coverage after 2003. The results of this study are expected to serve as a reference for water resource and land use management in the area covered by the
Zhuoshui Alluvial Fan.
Key Words: Budyko framework, runoff, climate change and anthropogenic activity, Zhuoshui Alluvial Fan